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This is off, by a fair way, happy to be corrected on this, the post just seemed off. I worked it to be 1 in 65,536 which is a lot of difference. And 1 In a million not appearing till 20 flips Flip Nr Chance 1 In ; 1 50.000000% 1 In 2 2 25.000000% 1 In 4 3 12.500000% 1 In 8 4 6.250000% 1 In 16 5 3.125000% 1 In 32 6 1.562500% 1 In 64 7 0.781250% 1 In 128 8 0.390625% 1 In 256 9 0.195313% 1 In 512 10 0.097656% 1 In 1,024 11 0.048828% 1 In 2,048 12 0.024414% 1 In 4,096 13 0.012207% 1 In 8,192 14 0.006104% 1 In 16,384 15 0.003052% 1 In 32,768 16 0.001526% 1 In 65,536 17 0.000763% 1 In 131,072 18 0.000381% 1 In 262,144 19 0.000191% 1 In 524,288 20 0.000095% 1 In 1,048,576 21 0.000048% 1 In 2,097,152